Spatio-Temporal Variations in Land Use Land Cover and Their Impacts on the Hydrology of a River Basin.
Abstract/ Overview
Changes in land use land cover (LULC) are consequences of anthropogenic activities on the surface of the land and they are linked to the hydrologic dynamics of a river basin. River Kuja basin has experienced rapid LULC changes over the past decades with alterations in the surface water. However, little is known about LULC changes in the basin that and how they impact on the surface water. The study aimed at investigating LULC changes and their impacts on the hydrology of the River Kuja basin. Specific objectives were: to determine LUCL changes in basin; to simulate changes in the basin hydrology; and to assess the perception of local communities of the impact of anthropogenic activities on the hydrology of the basin. The study adopted the systems theory, while the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response model was used as a framework for analysis. The study used time series and cross-sectional survey design. Thirty years with four (4) decadal satellite images of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020 were downloaded and processed to determine land use land cover changes. Hydrological modelling through HEC-HMS model was used for rainfall-runoff simulation to determine the impact of LULC changes on the streamflow. Local communities’ perceptions were investigated by administering questionnaires to a sample population size of 400 households. Remote sensing technology (Google Earth Engine (GEE) was used in analysing satellite images. Regression analysis was done for hydrological simulation between observed streamflow data and the HEC-HMS model parameters. Analysis of questionnaires was done using SPSS and Minitab softwares. Simple linear correlation matrix was used to show relationship between LULC changes and Kuja basin hydrology. Perceptions were analysed using percentages, while content analysis was used for qualitative data from key informants. Results have been presented using maps, figures, tables and graphs. The results show that there was an overall land use land cover change of 82% in the study area. Surface water resources reduced by 12.2%. The satellite images analysis gave an accuracy of 85%. The basin’s anthropogenic activities had an indirect but significant effect on the hydrology (p-value = 0.037) as well as having a direct and significant influence on the land cover changes (p-value = 0.025). Negative correlation was found between water bodies (WaB) and agriculture (Agr -0.96), urban (Urb -0.84) bare land (BaL -0.98) and population (-0.91). Positive correlation was observed between the water bodies and forests (Fr 0.93), shrub land (ShL 0.49) and grass land (GrL 0.27). The hydrologic modelling regression analysis resulted in correlation coefficient value of 0.64 showing a positive moderate relation between hydrology of the basin and LULC change, and a coefficient of determination value of 0.41 showing that 41% of the change in hydrology is associated with the change in LULC. For objective three, 75.0% of the respondents acknowledged land use changes. 78.8% recognized variations in weather and hydrological patterns while 65.6% noted the change in River Kuja flow over the 30 years. Land degradation was also a major problem as reported by 95.0%. The results revealed that changes in land use land cover contributed to the declining surface water resources causing alteration in the hydrologic system of the basin. As such, there is a need for designing and enforcing catchment conservation and policy measures, building the capacity of locals on basin conservation; fostering flood awareness and warnings to communities, and constructing flood/inundation control structures in the flood prone areas.