| dc.description.abstract | Appreciating the expanding significance of wheat in Kenya’s food availability, remarkable research endeavors have been undertaken to breed for inflated yielding crop varieties to contribute to food availability in the country. This study investigated returns to wheat research, varietal adoption, turnover rates and production risks. There is much of public funds have been used in the investment into wheat research for many years in Kenya. The worry is if it is rewarding to pursue the investments. The hitch is there is limited facts on the returns to financing have been attained so far to give guidance to carry on with resources allocation to wheat research. A key prerequisite for the KALRO wheat research program to generate large scale impact is large-scale varietal adoption rates, high rates varietal turnover and minimization of production risks. There is a scarcity of information on the rates varietal adoption, turnover and the risk in wheat cultivation in Kenya. Hence, evidencing the breadth and depth of such adoption, varietal turnover and production risks is both of intrinsic interest and important for estimating returns. To address this problem, the objectives were to analyze a benefit cost analysis of wheat research investment, Assess the speed of adoption of improve wheat varieties, examine the wheat varietal turnover rate and to investigate risks to wheat production in Nakuru and Narok counties. A multistage random sample of 344 wheat farmers was used. Primary data were collected using structured questionnaires in selected wheat producing Counties of Kenya, and also from secondary sources including government reports. The Benefit Cost Analysis (BCA) model was applied to approximate the returns to wheat research, in terms of three indicators: Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), Net Present value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Probit model was used to estimate wheat varietal adoption rates (VAR). The area weighted average variety age (WA or WAV) was used to estimate varietal turnover rate (VTR). The Five Point Likert scale model was used in assessing production risks. The results generated indicated a BCR of 1.47, a NPV of 23.31 million Kenya Shillings, and an IRR of 41%. The VAR was 42% and VTR was 15.65 years. The major production risks identified were Pests/diseases with a mean 3.24, output price fluctuations (2.38), lack of seed (3.10), and flood/high rainfall with mean and 2.18 in that order of ranking. The main conclusion from these results is that the return on investments in wheat research over the past years in Kenya is positive; even though relatively low, largely due to low varietal adoption and turnover rates and the prevalence of production risks. Therefore, it is recommended that in order to improve returns to wheat research in Kenya, varietal adoption and turnover rates should be improved, and wheat production risks should be minimized or eliminated. In addition, adequate policies and development programmes to promote new improved wheat varieties should be directed to pest and disease control, input and output delivery, seed multiplication and dissemination. | en_US |
